My condolences to the Polish nation following the death of President Kaczyński. It is a sad affair, and suggestive. The plane of the Polish president may one day be thought to represent Europe, which now thinks of mass murder as something belonging to the past.
Now to give an answer to Darek Rohnka. I do not understand his assertion that my thinking has undergone a “transformation, which has recently occurred.” Darek says that I’ve made some kind of irrefutable dogma out of the idea that Saakashvili is opposed to Moscow. In an article, published on his site, titled “Making the Enemy’s Strategic Objectives Intelligible,” I wrote as follows: “If we examine the Georgian events … we see that Moscow needed a reliable partner in Tbilisi who could start the war in a way that later indicated the fault was on both sides – that it wasn’t a simple case of naked Russia aggression.”
So much for my “irrefutable dogma.” I admitted the possibility that Georgian President Saakashvili might be an agent of Moscow. At the same time, however, Saakashvili has done some remarkable things against socialism and against Russia. So I have expressed cautious optimism, which is not for everybody. All of this demonstrates my open-mindedness, and the fact that I am ignorant of many things, groping in the dark with everyone else.
What has been unacceptable in our discourse, related to this, is the automatic assignation of “Soviet tool” to leaders of former Communist countries merely because it aligns with Golitsyn’s thesis. It is not that I disagree with Golitsyn. What I disagree with is an attitude that makes facts subordinate to theory. If my thinking has ever been different from this, then you may indeed assert that I have been transformed. It was easy to see that Georgia was still under Moscow’s dominion when Shevardnadze was in power.
But how do we evaluate Saakashvili? In specific cases of specific countries, when so much is happening over so many regions, we need specific knowledge. Even then, we must be careful not to overstate our case. When we can show Moscow’s hand clearly, then it is important to trumpet our findings, explaining how they confirm what Golitsyn wrote so many years ago. However, to blithely assert that whole governments and named presidents are agents of the KGB, then we bring discredit to ourselves by pretending to know more than we actually know. Theory is not a substitute for factual knowledge.
And please, do not mischaracterize my earlier statements. I never put forward an almost irrefutable dogma about Saakashvili or Yushchenko. As noted above, I clearly pointed to facts suggestive of Saakashvili’s collaboration with Moscow. Also, and more important, I never said the Soviet strategy was “in tatters.” I said that the strategy suffered setbacks, and that it was forced into an extended situation which resulted in problems within the control mechanisms. What we see today, quite clearly, is Moscow’s ability to trample down politicians like Yushchenko. As for the Polish leaders who died in the recent plane crash near Smolensk, they have been killed in a way that establishes their anti-Communist credentials with grim finality. Or will you say they were all KGB agents?
Do we really imagine that everything comes off perfectly in favour of the Kremlin? Real strategic plans do not work this way, and there is no excuse for implying that everyone on earth belongs to a false front – that there are no worthwhile candidates or parties or leaders, implying that President Kaczyński was some kind of KGB agent. If he was such an agent, then prove it and be done. Lay out facts and arguments.
Don’t simply assume it from the writings of Golitsyn. Such a standpoint paints with such a broad brush, and with such negativity, that nothing positive can be done in terms of counter-strategy.
To those of you in Poland, and those in Ukraine who may read these words: – read carefully, and do not mistake my meaning for some kind of psychological compensation. These are life-and-death matters, especially since someone is making war on you. Of those countries slated for destruction and extermination by the Communist side, America is target Number One. So please do not forget what is written here; namely, that America could be struck down tomorrow and there will be no remedy. Therefore, if any hope is to be found in the world, it must be found in those countries that survive. This is not compensatory, but logical.
And that is why I have urged my Russian, Ukrainian and Polish friends to translate and discuss Golitsyn. Knowledge of Golitsyn’s work will allow the people of Russia, Ukraine and Poland to understand who the executioners are, and what their method has been, and what is to be done. This has nothing to do with whether Yushchenko or Saakashvili are authentic. It does, however, take notice of Moscow’s vulnerability which the employment of such politicians – if they are KGB agents – necessitates. Here I find, in Russia’s maneuvering, an admission of weakness.
The Russian politicians know they are vulnerable to Polish and Ukrainian nationalism, which they seek to sabotage and divert at every opportunity. And Moscow’s propaganda has been so successful, that many do not dare to think of themselves as nationalists – supposing the term synonymous with fascism. And so, everything in Europe is reduced to a miserable liberalism that collaborates in its own suicide.
The Kremlin’s strategists are human. They are not gods. Am I supposed to say they win all the time, and never fail at anything? Should I say the KGB is omniscient and omnipotent? That would be idiotic, and is not necessary to Golitsyn’s methodology. Besides, there is no Gospel of Anatoliy Golitsyn. There are merely a number of correct predictions, and some failed predictions, and a method of analyzing events to generate further predictions.
And Darek, please, I have not postulated an “independent Ukraine” surrounded by a chain of hostile “Russian” forces. I described Russia’s careful system of encirclement, which includes Moscow’s military union with Belarus that would allow Russian troops to occupy Western Ukraine, cutting it off from Poland. I wrote, clearly and unambiguously: “To avoid misunderstanding, at no point do I think the Orange Revolution secured genuine independence for Ukraine. I am not confused as to the hidden or not-so-hidden KGB structures in the country. I refer to Boris Chykulay’s excellent report on the likely extent of the former KGB’s penetration of Ukraine’s political system. I write this so that [my Polish friends] will not misrepresent my position, suggesting I have proclaimed Yushchenko as the Second Coming, or that I refer to Ukraine as a genuinely independent country.”
And please stop objecting to the word “Russian.” Golitsyn himself refers to the “Russian strategists” in his work. It is hardly sensible to quote Golitsyn, then bash me for using Golitsyn’s terminology. And again, please do not mischaracterize what I have just written as anti-Russian. But then, you will go ahead anyway. This is what you and Mr. Bąkowski do. I write “X” and it comes back to me as “not-X.” I attempt to clarify, but it still comes back as “not-X.” And then it is said that I prefer to listen to “fairy tales from an inebriated Yeltsin”. The reason, it seems, is my “proud nationalism” which leads me into the same abyss as Churchill and Piłsudski.
Setting aside the fact that I am not a “proud nationalist,” but a nationalist from sentiment and humble necessity, I should like your argument against everyday nationalism clarified. Do you object to the fact that wars are now fought between nations instead of between fifes, clans or tribes? And cannot you recognize the absurdity of using the word “patriotism” divorced from the word “nation”? Patriotism is either national patriotism or some form of local patriotism. For an Athenian of the fifth century B.C. patriotism was city-state patriotism. For us, in our day, patriotism means national patriotism (what I call “nationalism”).
In this matter Nazism did more for the Communists than most people realize. Because of the Nazis and fascists, nationalism has been discredited throughout Europe, which is now made up of nations so weakened that they cannot defend themselves. Poor sick Europe, with its guilt-ridden nationalisms. If you persist in equating nationalism with fascism, then fascism is what you will get in the end.
The idea, as well, that belief in the progressive qualities of the national unit somehow necessitates the view that all nations are antagonists, is a throwback from the imperialistic ambitions of the pre-war European powers.
Nationalism and imperialism are not the same thing, and the one does not necessitate the other. As for the fate of the Hungarian fighters in 1956, or the Cuban counterrevolutionaries at the Bay of Pigs, or the Hmong in Laos, or the Vietnamese allies of the United States, their sorry fate was not dictated by American nationalism. It was dictated by strategic error, bad policy, and the hopelessness of the CIA as an intelligence agency. How are such events an indictment of nationalism? They are not.
Reading Golitsyn, and appreciating his analysis of Soviet strategic deception, is no substitute for fact or common sense. Golitsyn’s work helps us to figure out what Moscow is planning next. It is not a pill that, once swallowed, gives us omniscience.
interesting are the comments
“No Substitute for Common Sense”
25 kwietnia 2010
To those of you in Poland, and those in Ukraine who may read these words: – read carefully, and do not mistake my meaning for some kind of psychological compensation. These are life-and-death matters, especially since someone is making war on you. Of those countries slated for destruction and extermination by the Communist side, America is target Number One. So please do not forget what is written here; namely, that America could be struck down tomorrow and there will be no remedy. Therefore, if any hope is to be found in the world, it must be found in those countries that survive. This is not compensatory, but logical. And that is why I have urged my Russian, Ukrainian and Polish friends to translate and discuss Golitsyn. Knowledge of Golitsyn’s work will allow the people of Russia, Ukraine and Poland to understand who the executioners are, and what their method has been, and what is to be done.
Nie ma Polska we swiecie lepszego druha i przyjaciela nizli Jeff. Jestem studentem jego blyskotliwych analiz od ponad dziesieciu lat. Nie ma takiej drugiej osoby na swiecie jak wlasnie on. W obliczu apatii calego swiata, za wyjatkiem jak zwykle Turcji, Chorwacji, Slowenii i panstw baltyckich, jego zaangazowanie w nasze sprawy jest niesamowita sprawa. Nie mamy w Ameryce wiekszego sympatyka niz pan Nyquist. On wie dobrze ze jestesmy wespol z Ameryka sojusznikamo w bitwie o prawde i wolny swiat.
25 kwietnia 2010
Szanowny Panie Duchu,
Jeżeli poszukuje Pan przyjaciół, druhów i sympatyków, to przyzna Pan chyba, że Podziemie nie jest najlepszym do tego miejscem. “Zaangażowania w nasze sprawy” ostatnio domagano się chyba w zetemesie, zresztą nie wiem dokładnie, nie bywam w prlu, być może są jakieś nowe komsomoły.
W każdym razie, nas tutaj interesuje prawda, a nie zaangażowanie. Jeżeli któraś część powyższego w jakikolwiek sposób zbliża Pana do prawdy, to proszę się łaskawie podzielić tym objawieniem, bo ja niczego podobnego w powyższym nie widzę.
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